Saturday, May 27, 2017

블록체인 돈 세탁 가능성

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Friday, May 26, 2017

[CLE : BOS]에 부쳐 - 왜 감독은 제1경기를 포기하지 못하는가?

비록 보스턴 셀틱스가 정규시즌 동부컨퍼런스 1위팀이었지만, 2위팀이었던 클리블랜드 캐벌리어스를 상대로 포스트시즌 경기에서 4승을 먼저 거둘 수 있을 거라 생각한 사람은 많지 않았을 것이다. 객관적으로 열세인 전력에서 어떻게든 업셋을 이끌어내야 하는 것이 보스턴의 과제였다.

제1차전에서 양팀은 총전력을 꺼내서 맞붙었고 결과는 싱겁게도 클리블랜드의 승리. 제1차전은 클리블랜드가 1승 보스턴이 1패를 얻었다는 단순한 전적 이상의 의미가 있었다. 클리블랜드는 준결승에서 가볍게 4:0으로 스윕하고 올라와서 몇일을 쉬었다. 보스턴은 워싱턴과 7차전까지 가는 접전을 벌여서 겨우 이기고 올라왔고. 준결승 마지막 경기 끝나서 단 하루(!)만 쉬고 동부컨퍼런스 파이널을 시작했다.

1차전에서 보스턴 선수들은 몸이 무거웠고 반응속도가 느렸다. 팀의 선발진은 휴식이 절실히 필요한 상황으로 보였다. 하지만 감독은 선발진을 다른 포스트시즌 경기와 동일하게 풀타임으로 돌렸다. 결과는 2차전에서의 손쉬운 패배.

2차전은 게임 스코어를 2:0으로 만들었다는 것 외에 추가적인 의미가 있었다. 보스턴의 에이스인 아이재이아 토마스가 골반뼈 염좌로 남은 경기에서 아웃되게 된 것이다. 토마스가 아웃된 이후 보스턴은 득점력 빈곤에 시달렸다.

3차전에서 기적적인 승리를 올렸지만, 다음 경기들에서 손쉽게 지면서 결국 보스턴은 많은 아쉬움과 함께 이번 시즌을 마무리했다.

객관적인 전력 차이에도 불구하고 보스턴이 그나마 해볼만한 시리즈를 하려 했다면, 1차전에서 선발진을 모조리 쉬게 하고 백업 멤버만으로 경기를 했어야 했다. 1차전 포기 전략이다. 이건 누구라도 생각해봄직 하지만, 누구도 해보지 못했다.

한 팀이 체력이 소진된 상태로 올라와서 충분히 쉰 팀과 경기를 하는 것은 흔하게 있는 일이다. 내가 본 NBA 포스트 시즌에서도 흔하게 볼 수 있는 패턴이다. 그런 게임에서 1차전 포기 전략을 쓰는 감독은 한 명도 없었다. 내가 기억하기로는 말이다.

선수들의 컨디션을 제일 잘 아는 사람은 선수 본인과 감독이기 때문에 그들의 판단이 기껏해야 TV 모니터로 보고 있는 나의 판단보다는 낫겠거니 할 수 밖에 없지만, 종종 좀 거리를 두고 팔짱을 끼고 바라보는 객관적 관찰자의 판단이 나을 때도 있다. 그리고 이번 보스턴의 동부컨퍼런스 파이널 경기 운영에 있어서는 셀틱스 감독의 판단 미스가 있었다고 생각한다.

물론 1차전을 포기하지 못하는 데에는 나름의 이유가 충분히 있다. 그럼에도 불구하고, 과감해야 할 때 과감할 수 있어야 대감독이 될 수 있다.
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Monday, May 22, 2017

미 의회 - USTR의 NAFTA 재협상 통보문 함량 미달 선언



Democrats blast administration’s NAFTA notice for a lack of ‘clarity,’ details Congressional Democrats are ripping the administration’s notice to Congress of its NAFTA renegotiation intentions as excessively vague and far short of President Trump’s campaign promises to retool the deal to favor American workers, demanding more specifics and calling for hearings before talks with Canada and Mexico begin.

The notice, delivered to Congress on May 18, “is a stark contrast with the aggressive promises he made to hardworking families during the campaign,” House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi (D-CA) said in a May 18 statement. “For all his rhetoric, President Trump looks to be sorely disappointing American workers on trade.”

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) called the notice a “welcome first step” but said “the devil will be in the details. As I’ve always said, any new trade deals must prioritize American workers and help to get middle-class incomes and jobs going again. So far, this administration’s trade policy has been characterized by a lot of talk and no action — I hope this will change.” Former House Ways & Means chairman and ranking member Sander Levin (D-MI) called for the panel to “hold a series of hearings during this 90-day period before the negotiations begin so that Members have complete clarity on the negotiations and are actively involved in them.”

Ways & Means ranking member Richard Neal (D-MA) and Trade subcommittee ranking member Bill Pascrell (D-NJ), meanwhile, called the notice to Congress inconsistent with the Trump administration’s plan to “permanently reverse the dangerous trajectory” of U.S. trade policy. U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer used that phrase during his swearing-in ceremony on Monday.

“We are writing to express our concern regarding the lack of clarity and specificity in your letter notifying Congress that the President intends to initiate negotiations with Canada and Mexico,” the two said in a May 18 letter to Lighthizer.

“Businesses, workers, farmers, and their representatives in Congress today face a great deal of uncertainty as to what the Administration’s intentions are with NAFTA. This notice provided an opportunity to finally provide some clarity.”

“Unfortunately, it fails to do that,” Neal and Pascrell contend.

Neal and Pascrell outlined a host of what they called shortfalls in the notice. They also faulted the administration’s approach to notifying Congress, claiming it “may not even meet the basic consultation requirements set out in section 105 of the Bipartisan Congressional Trade Priorities and Accountability Act of 2015 (TPA).” The notice, they wrote, says the administration intends to comply with the negotiating objectives laid out in TPA, which apply generally to all trade deals.

“But Congress expected much more specificity in the 90-day written notification,” the letter adds. “Under TPA, the notice must describe ‘the specific United States objectives’ for a particular negotiation with a particular country. We need to know what the President intends to achieve by reopening NAFTA and what specific changes the President will propose to achieve that purpose.”

Lighthizer told reporters on May 18 that the administration will advance formal negotiating objectives at least 30 days before NAFTA talks with Canada and Mexico can begin, in line with TPA.

According to that calendar, the administration would issue its negotiating objectives by July 17. Neal and Pascrell want details sooner, however. In their letter to Lighthizer, they cite a host of specifics, saying the notice does not suggest how government procurement, for example, might be handled in a retooled NAFTA.

On currency manipulation, the lawmakers say TPA leaves it to the administration to choose from a menu of options — “everything from fundamental reforms such as ‘enforceable rules’ to weak mechanisms that have already been tried and have already failed, such as ‘reporting, monitoring, and cooperative mechanisms.’ Which of these options does the Administration intend to pursue in a NAFTA renegotiation?” TPA, they add, is silent on the objective of rules of origin, which the administration has called a key NAFTA priority; Neal and Pascrell want to know more on that issue as well.

“And does the Administration intend to address growing concerns with how the investor-state dispute settlement mechanism affects the sovereign right to regulate in the public interest?” the letter asks. Neal and Pascrell say Trump’s rhetoric on NAFTA — which he has described as a “disaster” — cannot be “squared” with the notice. And, they note, administration officials have hinted that the Trans-Pacific Partnership — which Trump withdrew from in January, and which many Democrats oppose — could serve as the starting point for NAFTA changes. Especially concerning to the two lawmakers is their fear that the administration “may not be fully committed to addressing the single most important reason that jobs have migrated to Mexico and weakened the bargaining position of U.S. workers: the Government of Mexico’s longstanding and utter failure to respect internationally-recognized worker rights.”

Even if Mexico agrees to the labor and environmental encapsulated in the “May 10” agreement reached between the Bush administration and Democratic lawmakers in 2007, many in Congress, Neal and Pascrell say, have no confidence that Mexico will adhere to those obligations.

They also questioned whether “this and future Administrations will fully enforce them. That must change before we are asked to support a renegotiated NAFTA.” Levin said the administration has avoided addressing Democrats’ concerns about Mexican labor issues. “Unfortunately, in meetings to date, the Administration has evaded questions about a core problem with NAFTA: a wholly deficient labor regime in Mexico that has kept wages low and workers without the rights to change the system,” he said in a statement. “Instead of being clear that Mexico will be required to change their laws and bring their practices into compliance with internationally recognized labor standards, they have stated that these are ‘sensitive’ issues.” As for the process the administration followed in notifying Congress, Neal and Pascrell say it was “clear from the start” that it was interested in working only with Republicans. The first draft of the notice was initially sent only to Republican leaders of key House and Senate committees.

The Republican leadership has long opposed major NAFTA changes, the lawmakers wrote to Lighthizer, “and now only reluctantly expresses a willingness to ‘improve’ and ‘modernize’ it. They in no way share your goal of ‘permanently reversing’ the trajectory of U.S. trade policy.” “We therefore hope you will work more closely with us as this process moves forward,” Neal and Pascrell conclude. Senate Finance Committee ranking member Ron Wyden (D-OR) said in a statement that the notice “is disappointingly

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미국, NAFTA 재협상 의사 공식화


로버트 라이시저(Robert Lighthizer) USTR이 의회에 NAFTA 재협상 의사를 통보하는 서한을 보냈다. 재협상의 핵심적인 내용은 지재권, 규제관행, 공기업, 서비스, 통관절차, SPS, 노동, 환경, 중소기업이다.

In addition, and consistent with the negotiating objectives in the Trade Priorities and Accountability Act, our aim is that NAFTA be modernized to include new provisions to address intellectual property rights, regulatory practices, state-owned enterprises, services, customs procedures, sanitary and phytosanitary measures, labor, environment, and small and medium enterprises. Moreover, establishing effective implementation and aggressive enforcement of the commitments made by our trading partners under our trade agreements is vital to the success of those agreements and should be improved in the context of NAFTA.
https://ustr.gov/sites/default/files/files/Press/Releases/NAFTA%20Notification.pdf


이 서한은 2017년 5월 18일자로 발송되었고, 이 시점부터 90일 동안 의회의 협의 기간(consultation period)을 가진다. 협의 결과 의회가 재협상을 승인하면 USTR이 재협상을 개시할 수 있게 된다.

재협상은 3국간 협상(trilateral negotiation)의 형태로 될 것이라는 게 라이시저 USTR의 설명.

라이시저의 발표문 중에 눈에 띄는 것은,

“USTR will now continue consultations with Congress and American stakeholders to create an agreement that advances the interests of America’s workers, farmers, ranchers, and businesses.”  

재협상에서 중요한 이해관계자를 워커, 농부, 랜처, 기업이라고 해서, 노동자 농부 농장주를 기업보다 앞에 두고 있다는 것. 재미있는 발표문이다.

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로버트 라이시저 USTR, 다자체계 부정

APEC 통상장관 회의에 참석한 라이시저 USTR이 자신은 다자회의를 하기 위해 온 것이 아니라, 양자회의를 하러 온 것이라고 발언하며 APEC이라는 다자회의에 참석하기 위해 모인 다른 APEC 회원국 통상장관들을 기함하게 했다.

USTR 웹사이트의 공식 발표자료에도 이런 사실이 나오는데,

“It was important to me to come to APEC first and foremost to reaffirm the President’s strong commitment to promoting bilateral free and fair trade throughout the Asia-Pacific region,” said Ambassador Lighthizer. “APEC provides a great opportunity to focus energy on the barriers to its stated objective of free and open trade – a goal that cannot be met without tackling trade-distorting measures that have led to massive U.S. trade imbalances in the region. I look forward to working with our trade partners to expand U.S. export market access and address persistent unfair trade practices.”

https://ustr.gov/about-us/policy-offices/press-office/press-releases/2017/may/ustr-robert-lighthizer-statement-apec
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알파고 vs. 커제

2017년 5월 23일(화), 25일(목), 27일(토)에 걸쳐 3번기를 펼친다고 한다.
커제가 이길 가능성은 거의 없어 보이나,
커제 입장에서는 초반부의 포석에서 뭔가를 배울 수 있다면 실력 향상에 도움이 될 것 같다. 근데 이미 작년 말에 타이젬에서 알파고로 추정되는 정체불명의 기사가 S급+A급 프로기사를 상대로 60연승인가를 하지 않았나? 커제도 3판 졌었던 것 같고. 그때 분위기와 같이 흘러가지 않을까 싶다.

40수까지는 인간 기사가 도저히 정확히 계산해내지 못했는데, 승부가 40수 안쪽에서 난다면 커제에게는 아무런 승산이 없을 것 같다.

http://news.naver.com/main/read.nhn?mode=LSD&mid=shm&sid1=105&oid=003&aid=0007968319

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Imperfect is the world we are living in.

모든 게 완벽할 수는 없는 것이다. 완벽하지 않은 것에 대해 관심을 가지고 좀더 낫게 만들어보자는 게 정석적 접근법이다. 완벽하지 않은 것도 신적 의지(divine intent)가 있을 것이라 생각하고 완벽하다고 믿어주는 것은 광신도.
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러시아의 코로나 확진자 증가 추세

연해주 지역은 9월만 해도 코로나 신규 확진자 수가 60명대로 떨어져서 조만간 종식되는가 했었는데, 10월 되니까 숫자가 다시 늘어나고 있다. 10월 19일에는 115명이 신규 확진. 3명 사망.  러시아 전체로는 신규확진자가 10.19일에 15,98...